Im an engineer, but Im also an idiot. I literally almost flunked out cuz i was too dumb. I ended up in construction because i couldnt do anything else engineering related. Take this opinion at your own risk because I might be talking out of my ass.
I’m in construction, specifically on the municipality side (yea im *that* city worker) so I’m the one administering the federal infrastructure funds at the ground level. To date I’ve administered millions in federal funds on “infrastructure”. Infrastructure is by definition the least sexiest thing. Everyone shits, but we’d all prefer to not deal with it, that’s infrastructure. Here are a bunch of very common sense reasons why this isnt going to cash in.
* I see a lot of posts about steel, concrete and other raw materials. Clearly these are from people who know fuck all about infrastructure. I’d argue that if you’re looking to invest into Biden’s infrastructure plan you should be looking at the other end of this supply chain. Who do you think is more profitable, the no name company that supplies the raw material for 1 component of an iphone or Apple? If youre looking to jump onto the infrastructure bandwagon, I’d be looking at construction companies or engineering firms.
* But companies are also not a great bet. contractors and trades are specialized. The company that paves the street is not the same one that does traffic signal upgrades. An electrician is not going to do laborers work. Large companies will need(either by choice or requirement) to subcontract out certain specialized portions thus diluting overall tendies. not to mention that profits are capped. markup % is often literally defined. “Oh no Mr. Contractor you have a problem? fuck you, sucks to be you” (this is one of my favorite parts of the job). Not to mention that projects are parsed to all the states and from there into certain sizes in order to further dilute the tendies. State and local governments may have additional requirements that even further dilute the tendies. The government is trying boost an industry and the economy at large, not a few companies. The literal idea of the plan is to trickle money across the country. If you look at this fountain that slowly trickles down, if you place your cup in any one spot you’re just gonna get a few drops.
* Infrastructure means nothing because it means everything. It could be streetlight poles in which case steel is very very relevant, or it could be a fucking sidewalk in which case steel is not important at all. If you just open your eyes when you go outside (huge ask i know) you will see that infrastructure is extremely varied.
* Many of us with ties to the industry are feeling delays and back orders, but this is logistics related. These issues were around before the infra plan and will remain after. I think the idea behind these “DDs” on raw materials is because they think this infrastructure plan will increase demand on an already limited supply thus driving prices and profits up. Nevermind the contracting aspect of this money(a lot of it is fixed for a certain amount of time), Supply and demand still rules, but solving the global supply chain logistics will also increase supply. The supply chain logistical issues are a larger and more importantly, independent, factor.
* Also surprise surprise Biden’s infrastructure plan, while maybe bigger, isnt special. Trump had infrastructure plans and so did Obama. Infrastructure is ALWAYS happening. As i said, everyone shits and it doesnt stop. Infrastructure never stops, you can try to clench your sphincter closed and it’ll work for a lil while, but eventually you shit. Its the same thing with infrastructure spending. Biden’s plan is not the big demand surge people think it is.
* I think a lot of people underestimate the timescale of infrastructure. it takes time to build shit and it takes even more time to renovate shit cuz you cant just blow it up and start over. Most people cannot shit on command and those that can dont do it instantly. This aint China. We’re not gonna build a covid hospital in 48 hours( mostly cuz our work isnt made out of garbage tofu-strength concrete but that is another topic). This shit is going to take YEARS. I will see Biden infrastructure money at my level 1-2 years from now and will start spending it 3-5 years from now. Think about this, after the money is secured someone gotta design the damn thing, someone gotta the draw the picture so my dumbass who cant read can knows what is supposed to be built. Those assholes always fuck up too and they are the smart ones!!! This isnt even mentioning how raw material suppliers, product suppliers, construction companies, design firms, are only a part of this timescale.
* One dude can only use 1 shovel at at time, can operate one piece of equipment at a time. The pipe maker can only make pipes so fast and those pipes can only be installed so fast. There is no exponential factor in infrastructure like there is in tech. An app can be downloaded millions of times in a single night. You only shit one poop at a time.
Tl;dr. Infrastructure is like pooping. Everyone does it, it is always happening. Trying to cash in on infrastructure is trying to cash in on pooping. You can only poop so fast and so much, the supply demand is capped. You only shit one poop at a time. Sure you get diarrhea sometimes but even then it has its limits. You cant cash in on analogous dry heaves. Infrastructure is regular, so in the long term investing in this industry is probably a smart move. As long as humans are alive they are going to shit and if there are more humans tomorrow than there are today then there will be more shit, but if that is your tendie making strategy why are you even here?