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What will happen to Bitcoin next. Three possible scenarios


Experts believe that in the near future the price of bitcoin will drop below $ 50 thousand. But after that, various events are possible.

Yesterday, March 25, according to TradingView, bitcoin quotes fell to $ 50.6 thousand. The main digital coin almost returned to the psychological mark, which it crossed on February 17. Now the cryptocurrency has partially won back positions and as of 14:00 Moscow time is trading at $ 53.2 thousand.

According to experts interviewed by RBC-Crypto, there is a possibility that in the near future the price of bitcoin will drop below $ 50 thousand. But after that, various scenarios are possible.

What influenced the market

Market sentiment could have been influenced by the words of Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio about a possible ban on cryptocurrency investments in the United States, said Denis Voskvitsov, head of fintech at Exantech. He himself believes that Dalio’s forecast is unlikely to come true. In mid-March, the billionaire said that the American authorities in the future will only increase taxes, and the flow of capital into crypto assets will make it possible to evade taxes.

Fundamental factors show that depressive sentiments prevail in the cryptocurrency markets, says Yuri Mazur, head of data analysis at CEX.IO Broker. Bitcoin has been targeted by two verbal interventions: US Treasury Secretary Jannette Yellen and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, he explained. Powell previously argued that cryptocurrency is too volatile and unsecured, so it cannot be a means of settlement. And Yellen criticized bitcoin, calling it “extremely ineffective.”

Positive scenario

If bitcoin falls below $ 50 thousand, the market will react with increased purchases, the head of the fintech company Exantech is sure. According to him, Bitcoin and Ethereum already have the Buy indicator on CoinMarketcap. This means that the platform is evaluating the current situation as a good buy. 

“The weekly decline in both currencies was 10%. Quite a bit, if you remember what the intraday market movements were like at times. If they lose another 4-5%, this will not greatly change the situation, ”said Voskvitsov.

He also believes that the upward trend is far from over. People are determined to set new records, few expect the rally to end so early, in 2017 and 2013 the rally went on until the end of the year, and many investors are inclined to extrapolate this experience to the current year, Voskvitsov said.

Neutral scenario

While the markets are experiencing a large-scale bullish trend, despite the current correction, the head of the data analysis department of CEX.IO Broker is sure. In his opinion, in the event of a sharp decrease in quotations on the crypto market, the value of the main digital coin may fall, but not less than $ 40 thousand Negative statements by US officials will be played out at the expense of global trends and trends, Mazur admits.

“The bears will be allowed to reach values ​​of $ 47 thousand and even possibly a little lower, and then there will be a sharp reversal towards returning to the range of $ 52 thousand – $ 58 thousand, this will be a bear trap. Such a situation may well occur at low trading volumes or in the absence of large institutional players, for example, on weekends, ”the expert added.

Pessimistic scenario

Bitcoin’s overcoming of the threshold below $ 50 thousand may be a signal for institutional investors to exit the asset, predicts Michael Ross-Johnson, CEO of the cryptocurrency p2p platform Chatex. In his opinion, after the start of the global economic recovery, investors began to shift into the usual assets of the stock market, expecting their growth.

“Most likely, going below $ 50 thousand is not just a correction, it will be the beginning of a decline in the asset, which should have begun long ago. It is possible as a gradual reduction in the cost of bitcoin, and a sharp drop, “- said the expert.

According to Ross-Johnson, now both the stock and cryptocurrency markets are balancing between growth and correction, and if the exit from digital assets begins, this could cause a collapse – retail investors will start selling cryptoassets so as not to lose everything.

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