TSLA: The Bearish Case

So, the Chinese state media has been shit talking Tesla for weeks, and their sales are plummeting in China as a result.

After a woman protested Tesla at the Shanghai Auto Show in April, state media organs compared their cars to the Samsung Galaxy Note 7.

Yes, really.

Both in terms of production and sales, Tesla needs China.

But does China need Tesla? With three viable EV startups on the market, the answer is no.

First off, it is no coincidence that XPeng, Li Auto, and Nio all opened around 2015, when Tesla first started to become profitable. DiDi drove out Uber, Baidu drove out Google, and these EV startups will drive Tesla out of the biggest EV market in the world, because the Chinese government has a history of economic protectionism. They subsidize the fuck out of the industries they want developed, then force out Western companies by any means necessary.

Look, I’m not saying “don’t invest in Tesla.” I’m saying consider the three EV startups in China, and watch that market very, very fucking closely.

April, viral video of a woman protesting Tesla:

April and May, sales go down as Chinese EV sales moon:

June, Tesla issues massive “soft recall” of over 200k Chinese vehicles amid regulator scrutiny (that is pretty much every Tesla vehicle in China):

Note: In case this entire post does not make it abundantly clear, I have no positions in TSLA.

For those of you who apparently can’t read, or comprehend written English, “no positions in TSLA” means no put options, and I am not rich or stupid enough to short the stock.

I do, however, own XPeng and Li Auto stock.

What do you think?

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  1. TSLA is still sold out for all their units being produced in China despite that staged protest. I also do not have any shares at the moment, but probably will pick some up on any large-ish pullbacks. TSLA is not going anywhere.

  2. The June recall was deadass just a software update 😂 it was all FUD but a bearish sentiment is that China could use teslas tech in xpeng, nio, etc. But as long as Tesla becomes a name brand in China it should come out on top

  3. I agree that these Chinese EVs are great buys.

    Just don’t underestimate the number of Chinese that will buy Tesla in silent protest as a result of this media campaign.

    China also did this with Apple and Huawei among other players launched fierce competition. Apple still crushes in China.

  4. Giga Berlin, Giga Austin, 4680s, better tech than everyone in Legacy Auto by 5 years, FSD on the way with no competitor having anything close to Vision (Lidar is a joke for true Level 5). FSD= Robotaxis. BULLISH TSLA all the way, this is not your legacy auto company this is a tech monopoly in disguise. 5 years from now when you get picked up by a Tesla Robotaxi for a very low price and see advertisements (future revenue stream) going across the interior screens of the car as you chill out and do some work, you will realize wow I should’ve bought some shares in this Goliath of a company when it was still David.

  5. Hahahaha, sorry but are you living under a rock?
    What you mentioned about China’s media bashing Tesla started back in April and peaked in May, they already softened their tones after Tesla announced that it will build a data center in China to host all user data and promised China’s user data will never leave the county.
    The Chinese government got what they want, the worst time has past.
    I read Chinese news everyday.

  6. If all of Elon’s companies were public then maybe but only Tesla is so you aren’t betting against the company, you’re betting against peoples opinion of Elon Musk.
    Go back to Twitter Dr. Burry

  7. Neoliberals ruined everything and empowered the modern era fascist empire for a few additional shekels by moving production to China.

    China WILL eradicate every single competing company one at a time when it suits them. They control their population so fully, that they don’t need to create any tariffs or complex trade arrangements to avoid western companies’ competition. China will just propaganda the companies they dislike and chinese people will obey.

    China WILL also stop respecting the shady ADR arrangements as well, once they feel like they are losing too much money / influence to foreigners.

  8. No Need to shit talk for Tesla. Find someone who owns a Tesla and ask them if you can tag along to the next Service Center visit for repairing anything. The Service Advisor will do a great job of it by themselves!

    I highly recommend going to the Seaside, CA Tesla Service center and have Ken Sickler as your service advisor… this guy will flat out tell you to sell your tesla and never buy another one 😂🤣😁😆

  9. There is little doubt Tesla is way overvalued. But that is par for the course in 2021. Likely nothing will happen until there is some giant market panic and then we’ll see where Tesla ends up landing. I suspect about 25% of where it’s at today given their eroding monopoly.

  10. I have no opinion on Tesla one way or another, but I strongly recommend **not** investing in Chinese companies, and particularly Chinese electric car companies. (Fucking Nikola literally rolled a fake truck downhill and said that was their prototype hahaha)

    China doesn’t have anything remotely resembling free media. China’s stock market is basically the world’s biggest casino. China’s government doesn’t give a damn what you’ll think of them of they decide to randomly freeze things just for shits and giggles. (Alibaba’s CEO tried to talk shit, and now he has a friendly neighborhood comissar hanging out with him 24/7…)

    If a bunch of foreigners dump their money into an unaccountable shady Chinese company that goes belly up… The SEC won’t protect you (not like they ever do, tbh) and the Chinese will laugh and laugh and laugh as they end up with your cash and yet another story of tricking a dumbass westerner out of all his money. 🙂

    I get that electric cars are sexy, and that you want to get in early on the next Tesla (that’s called FOMO), and that having over a billion potential customers is cool as hell – but dude, that’s not worth it. That’s just like finding a cheap deal on a vacation in North Korea: sure, it might work out, maybe, but if it doesn’t, you’ll be soooo fucked LOL

    Don’t go chasing Chinese waterfalls, better stick to meme-stonks and DDs that you’re used to. 🙂

  11. Weak analysis.

    – Chinese media is not talking shit for weeks.
    – Woman was a freak, this got debunked multiple times.
    – sales are fantastic. It will be proven tomorrow again
    – soft recall OTA, which is super easy to do and is totally normal. My iPhone got „recalled“ multiple times this year alone.

    You are way too much believing what the US media wants to tell you and frame tesla. Start to read more content, and you will see that many of these news are just a clickbait narrative (which you fell for).

    Your post should actually be deleted for misleading content.

  12. And I didn’t even get into the fact that legacy automakers like Volkswagen and Ford are about to obliterate Tesla’s market share, or the fact that Musk is a fucking idiot, who tanks his own stock for fun with shitposts.

    Which is hilarious for people who don’t own TSLA, but not so funny for the people who do.

    Buyer beware, just sayin’.

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