Now that I got your attention, I’m thinking there is going to be a (possibly major) correction mid-way next week.
FOMC meeting is on July 28 and they will be, yet again, discussing fiscal and monetary policies. Fed funds rate could remain at <=0.25% or bump up. The rise in fed fund rate is pretty unlikely as JPow communicated that QE slowdown will precede interest rate hikes, but there’s a good chance that tapering will be further discussed. US exports have climbed back to precovid numbers, US imports are higher than ever before despite DXY getting slapped meanwhile the GDP target has risen for 2021 signaling a sooner than anticipated economic recovery. Not to mention the continuous MoM CPI climbs in absurd amounts and the US operating at a massive trade deficit, all signal that tapering may start in the very near term despite JPow repeating how far we are from the economic target. However, officials have echoed on numerous fronts, the interest rate is not expected to see a hike until 2023; although, they predict that tapering plans will be announced in Fall of this year, but with everything seeming to go back to status quo sooner than expected, tapering or other bearish monetary policies could be announced and implemented shortly.
Tech earnings week is fast approaching. It’s unlikely the prices will hold when tech stocks sit at all time highs and the ER forecast for blue chips remain stagnant compared to its previous quarters.
TA says we’re reaching upper level resistance. Volatility is extremely high on the upside and can trigger HFT or quant funds to reduce inventory. We can expect higher levels of volatility (VIX futures that is only 1 week dte trading at roughly 20% from current levels).
[Reaching critical trend line resistance. Consider QQQ to have a upside of +1% from here at $370~$371](https://preview.redd.it/2pp016pjbzc71.png?width=1546&format=png&auto=webp&s=3248a4a2286ac3add6b4a7351682104e2ff5a773)
EWT says we’re reaching the massive correction cycle. It’s the same shit when it comes to tech earnings run-up followed by the dump in spite of a decent performance.
Uncertainty creates risk and risk drives fear so the fact that ER release (granted a beat) by the blue chips might not be large enough to justify current prices, or the possible sector rotation that may ensue post ER release, or the possible tapering discussion which may change the macro, or reaching the upper level resistance of a major trend line could scare smart money away from the equity market in the near term. Call it quad witching if you will.
**QQQ ETF weighting/ER Date:**
* AAPL – 13.39%/July 28
* MSFT – 10.76%/July 27
* AMZN – 10.66%/July 28
* FB – 4.26%/July 28
* TSLA – 3.45%/July 26
* GOOGL – 3.42%/July 27
* PYPL – 1.99%/July 28
The stars have aligned for a (bigly) drop.
Position: QQQ 361p 08/06