$eBay seller thinking eBay misses Q2 big.

I’ve been a seller on $ebay for many many years. It’s my only income outside of rental properties.

EBay did an update in April that seems to have broken their search result algorithm. I’ve seen hundreds of seller complaining about a significant drop in sales since the update. Personally, mine are down 80%.

It’s not the reopening or a broader economy issue. My etsy sales are pretty much flat during the same time period.

After doing some more digging, I found that many of my listings are just not showing up in search results. Many other sellers are reporting the same.

What ever eBay did with their “update” has made it so that even if you’re a Top Rated seller offering same day handling with free shipping and you’re also paying eBay to promote your listings…they just don’t show up.

So, some of this will likely mean that they are just buying from other eBay sellers. But those sellers are more expensive, so the buyer may check Amazon. But this also isn’t just one category, so there are likely items that only have a few people offering them…if they aren’t showing up then those buyers are going elsewhere.

Bottom line, this can’t be helping sales and it’s been going on since almost the very start of Q2.

So I’m thinking hard about entering some options that bet on eBay missing their guidance for Q2. Just thought I’d throw this out to the fellow apes.

There’s no DD on this, no solid reason other than the personal experience of me and many other sellers seeing that eBay broke their system and is now excluding some of their best sellers from search results. I wouldn’t be honest if I didn’t say that I’m hoping a drop in share price gets the CEOs attention. I had to cut all my employees hours by 90% since this happened and shut down my recent attempt to open a brick and mortar as part of the reopening. The online sales were the only way I could afford a sustained loss to try this. So we got out of our lease early and moved to a little warehouse until this passes.

Thoughts on the best way to take advantage of a missed earnings would be appreciated. I’m thinking of going basic with just buying puts.

What do you think?

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  1. I’m curious how you still make money on eBay. It was a pretty big chunk of my income until their fees got out of control. The final nail was the total removal of seller protections. I can’t run a business when people can just file a complaint so they can cut a deal after they receive the item.

  2. Funny, I also sell on eBay and called customer support repeatedly about my items not showing up in searches. My sales didn’t drop much but it took repeated listing to sell high demand items because they didn’t show up in a search.

  3. With every “update” more and more of that site becomes broken and less user-friendly.

    It’s almost like all the smart people that started eBay over time have left for bigger and better things…

    I stopped selling on eBay last year. Was tired of all their changes that were just bigger profits for them and less protections for us.

  4. Look into selling OTM call verticals as well. While buying puts have a higher potential payout, you’re fighting theta.

    Ebay’s problems are well known, so that’s why they’re trading like a value stock. Whether the earnings release will provide the catalyst for a big downdraft in prices is a gamble because it would need to be a major surprise.

    Ebay’s doing all sorts of stuff to dress up their numbers with divestments, recruiting international sellers in third world countries, so they might keep the plates spinning in the air a while longer.

  5. Casual sellers may have given up selling. A few weeks ago they disabled my ability to sell unless I stepped through some special process. No more selling for me for the hassle-factor alone.

  6. I noticed something similar when I sold some PS5s. They’d put me at the top for a few minutes and I got a bunch of views. If I didn’t sell it right away, my listing would disappear with no more views. Had to end and relist until it sold right away. Thinking it’s on purpose they do that.

  7. Given how many eBay bucks promotions I’ve received recently, especially after they had all but stopped them, this seems to check out. I’ll probably buy some puts, too.

  8. I’d be careful with this quarters expectations. eBay gave guidance for Q2 when they reported mid April. They will have a good sense of Q2 earnings given they were mid way through the quarter at the time. But this could impact their Q3 guidance if it is an issue. eBay is buying back a shit ton of shares, so any dip could be short lived and they are a cash cow. So I highly doubt any big dip. But I’m long on eBay.

  9. I’ll add that is today is the last day of their “adults only” section. They are killing it off and that will make a dent is sales for sure. That section was the go to for pornos….now where to buy those gems? Lol. Why they would disallow porn and the adult section in general? I have no idea but July 15 is the shutdown.

  10. This is all second-hand hearsay but I was speaking with a client that sells his images via eBay, he does a lot of nudes and they were no longer allowing him to sell imagery due to eBays new policies, which he said stems from them no longer partnering with PayPal for payment processing but some bank overseas which took exception to nudity, sounds insane but he was stressed about it and said that’s what he was told from a rep he was finally escalated to.

  11. I’m winding down my biz because fk the new tax requirements on reporting over $600 and my sales have only been down 30% since I pay to promote my inventory as well.

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Am I missing something? If we stop the burn at 25trillion how will we see over a penny?